At the end of 2006, Asia-Pacific cellular connections passed the 1 billion mark. India overtook China in terms of growth rate in Q1 2007 and will boost the regional figures in the forthcoming quarters, as per a survey conducted by Wireless Intelligence, a study conducted by Wireless Intelligence read. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia have gained strong momentum over the past few quarters with almost 50 million net additions between 2005 and 2006. A wave of WCDMA network rollouts is expected in most markets by the end of 2007, overtaking the number of CDMA2000 1x EV-DO networks, the Wireless Intelligence study read, the Wireless Intelligence survey said.
Wireless Intelligence collects data from 57per cent of Asia-Pacific operators, which account for 77per cent of total connections for the region. We estimate connections for those operators who do not report results.
During December 2006, Asia-Pacific reached 1 billion cellular connections. It has been the third fastest-growing region with a 27per cent increase year-on-year. In mature markets such as Western Europe and North America, market growth is softening; however, Asia-Pacific reached a 30per cent penetration rate and is expected to grow by 19per cent between 2006 and 2007, the Wireless Intelligence study said.
According to Wireless Intelligence, India overtook China in terms of growth rate and is very close in terms of overall net additions, running at almost 6 million per month. By late 2006 China's growth rate was running at around 18per cent quarter-on-quarter. India grew by 87.4per cent year-on-year, stealing China's thunder.
India is boosting growth in Asia-Pacific; six of its 15 local operators are listed in the top 20 fastest growing operators within the region for Q1 2007. This phenomenal growth in India has been driven by efforts from vendors and operators to push down prices and tariffs. This price war and competitive pressure was quoted during the Motorola and Nokia earnings results last quarter, as per the study by Wireless Intelligence.
China is still leading the way in terms of total connections, with 443 million compared to India's 142 million, but it will take 15 months to gain the next 51 million connections in China and match the growth we saw in 2006. By the end of 2007 China will reach a 38per cent penetration rate whereas India will just be on its way to 20per cent penetration, Wireless Intelligence said.
Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia have been the next fastest growing markets in Asia-Pacific through 2006 with almost 50 million net additions in total for the three countries during 2006. According to Wireless Intelligence forecasts they are expected to reach market growth of 45per cent, 42per cent and 25per cent respectively by the end of 2007, bringing a total of 43 million net additions for the year, the survey by Wireless Intelligence read.
According to the study conducted by Wireless Intelligence, in Bangladesh, Grameen Phone is expected to stabilise at around a 50per cent market share during 2007, losing ground to Banglalink (Orascom), which will more than double its subscriber base by December 2007. Pacific Bangladesh, which deployed its cdmaOne and CDMA2000 1x networks in 2005, is likely to reach 1 million connections by the end of 2007, following fairly slow uptake so far. Overall, Bangladesh should reach 29 million subscribers by December this year, giving a market penetration of 18per cent.
In Pakistan, Mobilink (Orascom) is likely to stabilise at around a 50per cent market share through this year, to Telenor's advantage—it is expected to grow by 72per cent year-on-year. Ufone and Warid are also fast growing operators, growing by more than 45per cent year-on-year and forecast to take share from Mobilink. Millicom is migrating its TDMA network to CDMA2000 1x, although it represents a tiny portion of the total market. By the end of 2007, Pakistan is expected to reach 63.2 million subscribers, reaching a penetration rate of 37per cent, Wireless Intelligence said.
In Indonesia, Telkomsel and Indosat are leading the market with 55per cent and 23per cent market shares respectively by the end of this year. Both operators are deploying their WCDMA networks in early 2007. Mobile 8 is gaining momentum quarter-on-quarter to reach 5per cent of the market with its CDMA2000 1x and CDMA2000 1x EV-DO networks, but we forecast that it will slowly be overtaken by WCDMA take-up. By the end of 2007, Indonesia will reach 78.7 million subscribers, with a penetration rate of 34per cent, the study said.
In Asia-Pacific ten CDMA2000 1x EV-DO networks, 29 CDMA2000 1x networks, 43 W-CDMA networks, 26 HSDPA networks and 103 GSM networks have been launched commercially, Wireless Intelligence said.
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